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Investing company profits warnings
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But what action, if any, should they take? Here, we explain what a profit warning is and what it means for investors. In short, a profit warning is when a company announces that its earnings will not meet analyst expectations. It is usually done two or more weeks before an earnings announcement to soften the blow to investors. On hearing a profit warning, the natural instinct for an investor may be to cut their losses and sell. After all, why invest in a company that is clearly not doing very well?
However, this is an ill-advised move, according to experts. Due to the consumer discretionary spending going down, I believed it was a safe assumption that consumer demand for upmarket kitchenware to decline. I already knew that acquiring new customers was getting harder due to the rise in social media paid ads. The stock was priced highly and therefore offered abnormal returns if I was right.
If I was wrong, my upside was capped in a weak market. Fully closed PROC short from pp below 49p. Took a few months but a profit warning was highly likely given the float circumstances and consumer environment. The company even flagged it in the last RNS. Other reasons for profit warnings can include internal blunders and even fraud. Tesco restated its profits and financial statements after aggressively bringing forward revenue and three executives were charged by the Serious Fraud Office.
There can also include legal reasons, for example a change in the law or regulations, or the launch of an investigation into a company or industry. How are profit warnings issued by companies? Profit warnings are a public announcement. They are released through the trading updates and statements issued by the company via the RNS. In order to avoid a significantly adverse market reaction to their news, they may decide to announce the profit warning as the stock markets closes down for the weekend, as previously mentioned.
Can profit warnings present opportunities as well as risks? Selling after the first profit warning is often the sensible thing to do but sometimes opportunities are created by them. A lower share price can make the company issuing the warning a more attractive buy opportunity if there is a fundamentally sound underlying commercial business. When prices fall and markets tremble, a bold contrarian investment could reap high profits.
The issue here is that unless the profit warning is a short-term problem, these issues often persist. For example, since Covid supply chain issues have been prominent. Many companies warning in are saying they expect these issues to continue into If a business is issuing profit warnings on a regular basis this needs to be taken very seriously as it likely has deep seated structural issues.
So, the first profit warning is rarely the end of the story! Download the free ebook now Enter your email to receive my free UK stock trading handbook, packed with professional techniques to manage risk and consistently profit on AIM stocks. Here are a few things worth considering: Does it have strong finances? Companies with little or no debt can become targets for private equity companies which like to load companies up with debt, improve the profits for a few years and then sell the business.
Can the business recover? Some businesses have just hit a rough patch and there is often potential for recovery. Are the shares cheap enough? Housebuilders after the financial crisis are a great example of this. Many were priced as if they were going out of business and were valued at a big discount to their asset values, but the market picked up and profits recovered even before Help to Buy was introduced in What should you do when you get a profit warning?
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