# Betting odds on super bowl Архив

# Betting exchange market makers

Автор: Fejora | Category: Betting odds on super bowl | Октябрь 2, 2012**UFC PICKS FOR TONIGHT**

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### CRESTLINER BOAT COVERS SPORTS BETTING

Considering the vastness of the events, this thesis will focus only on the horse races sector. This sector, even though it is decreasing, continues to be the most important category of betting in the United Kingdom. From October to September , bettors have wagered around 5. I have used real data provided by Ladbrokes plc. In Chapter 1, all the notions needed to fully understand the betting industry are explained.

A bet is a contract on some future cash flow based on the outcome of a given event e. Therefore, the cash flow is determined by the outcome of the underling itself and by the price of the contract, i. The fixed-odds betting is the most common way to wager on sports events and the main characteristic is that the bettor knows the odds at the time he places a wager.

The two main typologies of business of this industry are: Bookmaker and Betting Exchanges. The first, widely acknowledged, bookmaker in the United Kingdom is Harry Ogden2, who sets-up a business in the s. Bookmakers provide public odds3 at which they will accept any amount bet.

Considering these characteristics, the bookmaker market is a quote-driven market in which bettors can only decide to bet at the price decided by the bookmaker. The transparency on this kind of markets is very low, as only the last odds are public. The odds quoted by the bookmarkers contain already the so-called overround, which is their compensation for the services that they are providing and for bearing the risk of unfavourable outcomes.

Betting exchange, thus, allow bettors not only to bet on a positive outcome e. As in financial markets, bettors can place a limit order and wait that someone hits their order or they can submit a market order and match an already existing bet. In the thesis are shown some examples, which help to understand the exchange dynamics. These two types of business differ for many elements. The most important one is the different level of risk faced.

The owner of the exchange does not take any trading position, thus, he is not bearing any inventory risk. His revenues derive from the commission charge on the net profit, thus it is a certain cash flow. Whereas, the bookmaker takes the opposite side of every transaction, therefore, he needs to manage an active risk. His profit is not certain. He can lose a considerable amount of money in case of overexposition on the final result. The amount placed and matched has been converted in dollars using the exchange rate provided within the database.

The analyses made are: 1 Horse race classification: It is important to underline that horse races have various importance and consideration across the gambling community. The amount of money wagered and matched is directly proportioned with the importance of the race. In order to classify the data, after computing the average total matched amount of all races equal to , Flepp R. University of Zurich, 5 We are following the idea of Michael A. In order to study the liquidity, I have computed the ratio between the total amount matched7 until time t and the total amount matched in the whole race see formula 1.

Doing so for a standardized timespan i. The analysis has been done on 73 races of class1 and races of class 2. The results show that the betting exchange is illiquid until 50 minutes before the start of the race e. The results are nearly the same for both the classes. Therefore, in order to take into account this characteristic, I am assuming that it is possible to classify and aggregate each horse of every race by their average matched price of the pre-live period. In order to clarify, we can consider the favourite horse case.

The assumptions based on real observations are: it has the lowest average price in the pre-live period and each race has a favourite runner. Thus, it is possible to aggregate the favourite horses of each race that we want to analyse. An important element for every financial model is the price volatility. Effectively, a higher volatility will require a thicker spread to protect the MM from the uncertainty linked with the price. The procedure to compute the standard deviation is explained in the appendix 1 of the thesis.

The results show that the S. It tends to increase as we reach the start of the race. It was discovered that, in some cases mainly on the last favourite horse , the S. This happens when the back-lay spread on the market is wide and the price matched bounces from the lower bound to the higher bound.

The best way to hedge the liability8, while acting as market maker, is to back and lay on all the horses in an asymmetrical way. This means that we want to back more than lay9 on the horse with the higher negative liability and we want to lay more than back on the other horses. With this strategy, the model is reducing the negative liability in two ways 1.

Backing on the horse with the negative liability. Thus, if that horse will win the race, the bookmaker will receive money from the exchange for winning the bets. For the horse with a negative liability, the positive effect of the first term is higher than the negative 8 The liability is the amount that the bookmaker could win or lose when that horse wins the race. When it is positive is a profit, whereas, when it is negative it is a loss.

Whereas, laying is betting on the outcome that the horse will lose the race. Thus, LP k,j will be the price offer by the bookmaker when a customer bet on the sportbook. Whereas, it will be the lay price when the bookmaker place a lay order on the exchange. The model will back and lay on all horses, however, thanks to the asymmetrical betting, the net effect will be just back orders for the horses with negative liability and lay orders for the horses with a positive one.

For all the other horses, we have just the negative effect of the second term which is small; 2. Laying on all the other horses. Therefore, for the horse with a high negative liability there is a positive effect, which helps to complete the hedge. Whereas, for all the other horses the negative effect will be greater and, as result, the positive liability on those horses will decrease Furthermore, the strategy followed by the model must be dynamic.

Therefore, for the above cited characteristics, the model will change its behaviour based on the position and the limit, which can be derived from multiplying the overround with the wagered amount. In table 16, we can see the MM behaviour It is important to underline that on the favourite horse we want to back more than lay regardless the liability sign When the liability is positive and higher than the limit, the model will lay more than back.

Doing so the liability will be reduced over time and, without any non-trading area, it can easily changes sign and become a negative value. If the model stops to trade when the liability is lower than the limit, we can avoid to transform a positive liability to a negative one.

On the other hand, if we start with a negative liability when it will become positive, without a nontrading area, the model will start to lay more than back and the result will be a negative value again. Implementing a non-trading area is important to make the model more efficient. The expected mid-price In this thesis, the estimation of the mid-price has been computed as in a simple weighted average formula 4. To compute the Pup, following the methodology of Avelanda et al, 16, it was exploed the information implied in the level 1 quotes of the Order Book OB.

Otherwise, if the lay market orders deplete the best back size before the back market orders deplete the best lay, the price will decrease. The result, shown in table 17 and 18 of the thesis, are extremely positive. The general prediction error is around 0. The back-lay spread The spread should be a function of the following parameters: - - 16 Time and liquidity. Less liquid markets require a bigger spread.

Considering that liquidity is also a function of time in the betting exchange, the spread must be itself a function of time; Volatility. A more volatile market means that the risk of acting as market maker is bigger.

Thus, a bigger spread is needed; Position. When the exposure on one horse increases considerably, it is possible to increase or decrease the spread to handle it in the best way possible. Avellaneda, M. For the horses with a positive liability, instead, it will bell exactly the opposite.

In chapter 4, the results of the application and testing of the model are presented. The first test was made in order to see, through graphs, if the formula 6 can produce feasible back and lay prices. The overall results are extremely positive, in effect, it is shown figure that on horses with a negative liability the formulas 7 and 8 allows the MM to back more than lay.

Whereas, on horses with positive liability the formulas 9 and 10 allows to lay more than back see figure 9 and 10 17 E. Thus, we will subtract a higher spread to the Ep. In the market the Lay price would be the back price and the back price the lay price.

In financial markets the MM buys at bid and sells at ask price. In this abstract we will see only the table 19, which sum-up the effects of the MM model. The true probability column, instead, shows the winning probability without the overround The Liability pre MM is the liability faced the bookmaker without the model. Whereas the Liability post MM is the final liability that we will obtain thanks to the model and it was computed following the formula 3.

The MM effect column shows the change in the liability. It is important because, considering that Betdaq was bought by Ladbrokes, that amount times 1. In order to compute so, I have multiplied, for each horse, both sportbook and hedged liability by the true probability of winning the race and I have summed-up the single results. See chapter 1. The owner of the exchange charges a commission fee on the net profit. The value of 1. As we can see, the results are positive.

Of course, these positive effects comes with a price. The positive liability on the other horses is nearly always lower with the MM maker model. It is a logic and common result considering the general aim of hedging strategies: reducing or nullifying possible losses in case of negative outcome, renouncing a higher profit in case of positive outcome. We can see that with the model the minimum EV increases from In this case, the favourite horse have won the race and, as result, the bookmaker, with the implementation of the MM model, would have lose only The overall results of the MM model built in this thesis are very positive.

In effect, the model can reduce dramatically e. Furthermore, it has proven that when the winning probability is well balanced among many horses, it is better not to operate on the exchange. In theory, in this case, the optimal solution for a bookmaker would be not to accept any bets. However, it will probably result in loosing markets shares, which is not acceptable for any business. The logical strategy to implement will be to reduce as much as possible the number of bets.

Thus, it is better not to operate on the exchange. The model continues to work, when there are many horses but the winning probability is not well balanced among them References Amihud Y. Working Paper, University of Oxford. University of Zurich, Franck E. Geyer-Schulz A.

Ozgit A. Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes? I would like, also, to express my deep gratitude to Professor Federico Nucera and Professor Raffaele Oriani, my thesis supervisors, for their patient guidance, enthusiastic encouragement and useful critiques of this research work Finally, I wish to thank my family for their never-ending support and encouragement throughout my studies. Table of Contents Introduction Bookmakers provide public odds at which they will accept any amount bet.

Considering these characteristics, the bookmaker market is a quote-driven market in which bettors can only decide to bet at the price decided by the bookmaker, who provides all the liquidity in the market. Until , it was the typical way to wager on an event. A betting exchange is an order-driven market, where bettors trade directly with each other in a continuous double auction.

The liquidity is provided only by the traders. He can lose a considerable amount of money in case of over-exposition on the final result. The thesis is organized as follows. In chapter 1, all the notions needed to fully understand the betting industry will be explained. Chapter 2 will be dedicated to the analysis made on the 25 U. Gambling Commission- Industry Statistics, June 6 betting exchange.

In chapter 3 we will see the assumption and the estimation of each parameter of the MM model. Chapter 4 will present the results of the application and testing of the model. The model continues to work, when there are many horses but the winning probability is not well balanced among them. Therefore, it will be explained what a bet is and how it can be displayed.

Moreover, there will be an explanation of the two types of business that operate in the Betting Industry and how their coexistence is possible even though, theoretically, one is superior to the other. The fixed-odds betting is a form of wagering offered by a bookmaker or on a betting exchange.

The main characteristic of this type of betting is that the bettor knows the odds at the time when he places a wager. There are three main types of odds display Fractional, also known as Traditional or British, Decimal, known as European, and Moneyline, known as American.

The Fractional odds are manly used in the United Kingdom and Ireland. The second way to display odds is the Decimal or European odds. As we will see later, the bookmaker add the so-called overround. As result, the implied probability is higher than the true probability. Whereas, when the odds are offered on the betting exchange we obtain directly the true probability of victory there is not overround on the exchange. The last way is the Moneyline or American one.

If the figure is positive, e. Whereas, if we have a negative odd, e. In order to obtain the implied probability, we divide, in absolute value, the money we wager by the money we will receive In this thesis, we will use only the Decimal odds. In table 1, it is possible to see how to convert odds from one way to another.

The first, widely acknowledged, bookmaker in the United Kingdom is Harry Ogden31, who sets-up a business in the s. If we want to retrieve the overround from the odds, we just need to compute the implied probability of victory for each selections and sum them up. It is possible to see that it is not distributed homogenously on each horse but it is higher on the horses with a higher probability of victory.

This is a logical result. Bettors will wager more on the horses with a higher probability of winning the race, thus, the bookmakers need to increase their protection, provided by the overround, on those horses. It is possible to obtain the true probability, which is the probability without the overround, with a simply proportion.

Example of Horse 1 table 2 : Continuing the example of table 2, if the customers place The profit of the bookmaker is equal to the amount customers wagered minus the amount wagered on the winner horse times the odds provided. In table 3, we can see all the data of the example The role of the exchange itself is to provide a platform in which people can trade.

The provider of the platform charges a commission fee, usually between 2. There is a high degree of transparency as it is possible to know the whole limit order book as well as the matched price history. In this example, to simplify, it is assumed a uniform distribution for the overround, whereas in reality is a little different. In any case, this assumption does not change the general result. To have more information on the topic read: Luckner S.

University of Zurich, 39 Betfair Annual Report, Figure 3 Betdaq exchange To clarify the market dynamics, consider the following simplified example in horseracing Table 6 Betting exchange example n 1 Back 2.

In this case, the back price is the price at which it is possible to buy a bet on the winning result e. While the lay price is the price at which it is possible to sell the bet which is the bid price in financial markets The numbers under the odds correspond to the available volume offered by the counterparty, who had placed a limit order. The grey area is the top of the market i. If that horse will win the race, the cash flow will be equal to amount betted times odd e.

A similar example on basketball matches can be found in Ozgit A. To obtain a profit you need to sell the bet at one price lower than the one bought i. In this case, the bettor will earn the amount betted if the horse will lose, otherwise he will pay the amount betted times odd to the backer e. In our example, with just two horses, the bettor can also decide to back on horse 2 to obtain a less risky payoff on the same outcome of laying on horse 1 i. However, in the real world you need to back on all the other horses up to 18 in some race to achieve the same result of laying on horse 1, which is more affordable.

If a bettor places an order with an amount bigger than the one available on the market, the unmatched part will be shown on the opposite side of the market of the same horse. The same happens in case of lay orders. The main one is the overround.

There is none on the exchange and, as a result, the odds on the exchange are higher than the ones made by the bookmaker. This difference is mainly due to the different level of risk faced by these two types of business. His revenues derive from the commission charge on the net profit44, thus it is a certain cash flow. Whereas, the bookmaker takes the opposite side of every transaction, thus, he needs to manage an active risk.

There is also a different degree of transparency. In the betting exchanges, it is possible to know the whole limit order book as well as the matched price history. Whereas, with the bookmakers only the last public odds are shown. The knowledge of the entire limit order book can be useful, for example, to predict prices or, in general, to gather as much information as possible on the event.

Betting Exchanges are considered as a superior business model to the traditional bookmakers, for all the above cited reasons. Nevertheless, the latter continues to be more successful than the first. Cash in-flow minus the amount betted. Smith, M. Market efficiency in person-to-person betting.

Economica, 73, The first is the learning costs to switch to a betting exchange structure Bettors are used to wagering at a traditional bookmaker, which is simpler than trading on an exchange. In the first case, the only decision to make is to bet or not at one price decided by the bookmaker. Whereas, in the exchange, the customers face different odds and options limit or market orders, back or lay orders and it takes time and effort to get used to new opportunities; 2.

Betting Exchanges vs. Sportsbooks In this report, we will report on what betting exchanges are, how they compare to online sportsbooks, and how you can increase your chances with your selection. A betting exchange is an online service that covers betting on a variety of sports such as football, basketball, tennis, golf, poker, and other sports. It is companies that allow betting providers to exchange odds and bet against each other, rather than betting against bets on the sports system.

While sportsbooks are focused on fixed-odds betting, betting exchanges offer a fluid marketplace where customers can play against others. The best betting exchange offers better odds than a sportsbook, but higher odds on a stock exchange have better odds, while a small commission rate on a betting exchange is charged for winning a bet. If they cannot, they will be leading the line to build a lead to win, not the other way around.

Unlike traditional bets on sports, where players are only allowed to place bets, betting exchanges are places where betting providers can not only place bets but also accept bets from other players. In short, a betting exchange is a peer-to-peer betting network, but it differs from a betting network in that it is a stock exchange set up to facilitate transactions. The simple answer is yes - you can now access betting exchanges in Germany, India, and many more countries.

But be sure to check the team and conditions when searching for your desired country. What are the best betting exchange sites for customers residing in the United Kingdom? The best betting exchanges are decided by whether you are a sports trader or a matched bettor. Betfair is the most well-known betting exchange, followed by Betdaq, with Smarkets and Matchbook hot on their heels as matched bettors seek to lay off bets. In terms of liquidity and exchange markets open, both exchanges are improving.

How betting exchange works? These offer by far the best odds around because you are not actually betting against the bookie. You are betting against other players. What is a betting exchange site? Betting exchange site is a marketplace for customers to bet on the outcome of discrete events and have much better odds than traditional fixed odds bookies.

What are the betting exchanges in horse racing? Betting exchanges offer the opportunity for anyone to both back and lay bet. By way of example, if someone thinks Team A can win a contest, he may wish to back that choice. Even a bookmaker offering the punter that bet will be putting that choice.

Both parties will agree on the backers stake and the odds. The place just markets in horse racing are also an excellent approach to oppose or back a horse. You no longer need to choose your horse and decide whether it back to win or each way.

You can now back it place only, or even place a horse you do not fancy for a location. Before exchanges came about if you did not fancy a horse the only way to oppose him was to attempt to choose among the additional horses to win. Conclusion: Choose Your Betting Exchange Wisely As you can see, there are many factors to take into account when choosing an online gambling platform — especially online betting exchanges.

There are many options out there, and we included some of the best ones on this page. All sites featured on this page are safe and secure, protecting you and your funds with cutting-edge technologies. We took all these things into account when creating this article and the list in it so that you can enjoy the best betting exchange options. Perhaps one of the most important aspects to cover is bonuses and promotions that are offered to new and regular users.

You can rest assured that all sites on this page offer some of the best bonuses in the industry that are bound to give you a head start. Therefore, feel free to make your final choice and start your online betting exchange journey by depositing money and making your first bet. Our platform allows people to give their opinion on betting services to help others find the best service for their needs. We provide an independent comparisons and may receive a form of compensation for including some companies in the tables.

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