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An imbalanced book may arise since there is no way for a bookmaker to know the true probabilities for the outcome of competitions left to human effort or to predict the bets that will be attracted from others by fixed odds compiled on the basis personal view and knowledge.

With the advent of Internet and bet exchange betting, the possibility of fixed-odds arbitrage actions and Dutch books against bookmakers and exchanges has expanded significantly. Betting exchanges in particular act like a stock exchange , allowing the odds to be set in the course of trading between individual bettors, usually leading to quoted odds that are reasonably close to the "true odds.

However, if someone offered odds of 10 to 1 that a card chosen at random from a regular 52 card deck would be the ace of spades, one would be getting "the worst of it" because the chance is only 1 in 52 that the ace will be chosen. Player A wins if the dice add up to 12, of which there is only one possible case.

Player B wins if the dice fall in any other combination, of which there are 35 possibilities. Laying odds[ edit ] When making a bet in which one must put more at risk than one can win, one is laying the odds. Rational bettors will do so only if the actual chances of an adverse outcome are low enough that the expected outcome even after deduction of taxes and any transaction costs is favorable to the person placing the bet.

Laying odds is reflected in the colloquial expression "[I would] dollars to doughnuts " — with which the speaker is expressing a willingness to risk losing something of value in exchange for something worthless, because winning that bet is a certainty. Bookmakers sell bets based on the odds of a specific outcome, but lay betting allows the bettor in some English-speaking countries, the "punter" to reverse roles with the bookmaker, using odds to sell the opposite outcome to the bookmaker.

In this context, "lay" is used in the sense of "layman", i. The term "fractional odds" is something of a misnomer, especially when visually reinforced by using a slash as opposed to, e. This fraction may be derived by subtracting 1 from the reciprocal of the chances of winning; for any odds longer than "even money," this fraction will be an improper one.

It can't get any worse than that. Harrison Butker has been practicing this week, which is huge news for Kansas City What are the three most important things that our analytics say? Walder: I'll throw you two sides from FPI, plus a futures bet. That's basically an entire secondary that is -- at best -- banged up! Given those issues we make the Bills and Ravens roughly equal strength and make Baltimore favorites by a couple of points with home-field advantage.

Sunday, p. FPI prediction: Packers by This is a team that is , but its losses came by double-digits and its win by three. New England ranks 26th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency. And now face the Packers in Green Bay. I'm not sure why this wouldn't be a blowout, and neither is FPI. But on the Jaguars it has been aggressive, seeing that Trevor Lawrence is playing at an entirely different level this season.

From the model's standpoint, this is the best team in the division. It makes the Jags the 11th-best team in football going forward -- don't be lulled by the Colts' surprise win over the Chiefs. And the Jaguars have the easiest remaining schedule in the division going forward. So FPI would like their chances even if they didn't already have a half-game lead in the division, but they do!

What is your best bet for Week 4? Josh Allen and the Bills have been throwing, throwing and then throwing some more. I'd play that total over Without Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips up front, the defensive line was not near as suffocating as it had been the first two weeks. Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, has accounted for more touchdowns this season than all but one team in the league.

On the other side, Josh Allen gets a Ravens defense that is ranked dead last in yards allowed per game. Close games have the Giants a bit overrated still, despite the loss to Dallas last week. Nobody wants to watch the plodding Chicago offense these days, but the Bears have a higher DVOA than the Giants through three games because of a better defense 11th compared to 28th for the G-Men.

I think the Bears can keep it close and I would actually favor them to win outright, but I'll happily take the 3. With a total of just I discussed why above, but I want to share one additional insight. The Eagles have a robust running game behind their stout offensive line. However, the Jaguars' defensive front could give them trouble. Jacksonville's defense ranks ninth in run stop win rate.

Jaguars defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell is familiar with how to plan to defend quarterback Jalen Hurts. Last year, he was part of the defensive staff that orchestrated Hurts' worst game as a pro against the Buccaneers in the Eagles' wild-card game loss. Hurts padded his stats in the fourth quarter. Through three quarters, he was for for yards with two interceptions and no touchdowns What is your favorite player prop? Schatz: Trevor Lawrence over Lawrence's strong pocket management means he usually doesn't have to tuck and run when he faces pass pressure.

He has only 22 rushing yards in three games in But the Eagles are going to bring a lot more pass rush than he has seen this season.

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